Joshua John
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November 28, 2024
The 2024 election is shaping up to be the closest is recent memory. Can Asian Americans make the difference?
With less than 20 days till election day, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent memory. As of October 19, 2024, polling aggregate from FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a narrow 2.1-point lead over Trump in the national polling average. Polling averages in swing states show no candidate with a lead greater than 2%.3 It’s clear that this election will be decided by the narrowest of margins. With an election this close, Asian Americans as a voting demographic have become more important than ever. It is important to note that identity politics may not play an important role in the Asian American vote. Only 27% of Asian Americans say that Harris’s identity as South Asian is important to them.1 Instead, Asian Americans are looking for a candidate whom they most closely align with in key issues. According to the 2024 Asian American Voter Survey, two of the most important issues to Asian Americans are the economy and healthcare.1 Therefore, either party would benefit from paying attention to the issues that matter the most to Asian Americans. Likewise, it is important for Asian Americans to examine the positions of either candidate on these issues when determining who they will cast their ballot for.
Inflation has affected Asian Americans just like all Americans, and voters expect the candidates to have a plan to make things easier for the average American. Trump wants tax cuts across the board. Trump advocates for tax cuts across the board and has proposed tariffs of up to 60% on goods from China. This would likely worsen inflation as companies importing those goods or using more expensive input resources from the United States to make their consumer goods would likely pass this extra cost to the consumer.2 Harris describes her economic plan as creating an “opportunity economy.” She proposes cutting taxes to the middle class while increasing corporate tax rates. Additionally, she has also detailed a plan to expand the child tax credit and expand federal down payment support up to $25,000 for first-time homebuyers.6 These proposals are likely to resonate with younger Asian Americans who are looking to start families and buy a home.
The Asian American population is aging, with Asian Americans being the fastest-growing population in the United States above the age of 65. 2 As such, healthcare has grown to be a top issue for Asian Americans. The details of Donald Trump’s healthcare plan are somewhat vague. Infamously, when asked about his healthcare plan during the last presidential debate he responded by saying that he “has concepts of a plan.” What we do know is that Trump attempted to repeal the Affordable Care Act during his previous term as president, which could have weakened protections for people with preexisting conditions. Trump is likely to take a similar course should he step into the Oval Office again. Harris has stated that she wants to build on Medicare’s ability to negotiate drug prices which was established from the Inflation Reduction Act. She also wants to expand Medicare and Medicaid coverage to services like at-home care.3
Looking at the previous election, we can see the potential influence Asian Americans have on the coming election. For example, Joe Biden won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, Georgia by about 12,000 votes, and Arizona by about 11,000 votes in 2020.5 There are 213,544, 555,851, and 342,853 Asian Americans in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona respectively.7 These are small margins of victory in key swing states with sizable Asian American populations, and the polling today indicates that this election will be even closer than 2020. According to the 2024 AAPI Voter Survey, Harris leads with Asian American voters by about 38% compared to Trump. Additionally, Asian Americans align more closely with the Democrats on issues such as abortion, education, and healthcare. 1 Thus, expanding the Democratic campaign’s lead with Asian American voters or perhaps more importantly energizing them to turn out in larger numbers on election day is a viable political strategy for the Democrats. While the Trump campaign would like to siphon some of that support, there are signs that the Trump campaign may be looking elsewhere for support. 62% of Asian Americans have reported having been contacted by the Democratic party as opposed to 38% who have said they have been contacted by the GOP. 1
Reguardless of which way Asian Americans vote on November 5th, they are likely to be a significant factor in determining the next president-elect. There has never been a better time for Asian Americans to vote and have their voices heard!
Josh, an OMS-II at TCOM, was raised in TX. He loves history, global politics, hiking, and trying new foods.
joshuajohn4@my.unthsc.edu
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